Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.3% vs McLeod 49.6% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 16-6 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Guentzel 92.7%
Defensive zone
McLeod 66.1%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 68.4%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Guentzel
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
16
(22 meetings)
6
16
Guentzel
McLeod
Last 10: Guentzel 2-8 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Guentzel
McLeod
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
11
Guentzel
McLeod
12 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Guentzel
McLeod
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (685)
50.4% (3,345)
-4.1%
Power Play
45.7% (291)
51.0% (292)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (42)
44.3% (635)
-1.4%
On power play, McLeod has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Guentzel is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Guentzel shoots left. McLeod is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Guentzel
McLeod
Home
48.3% (544)
50.2% (2,158)
Away
43.2% (474)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Guentzel
McLeod
P1
47.8%
50.8%
P2
45.2%
48.4%
P3
45.3%
50.0%
OT
33.3%
37.1%
Final 5 min
42.5%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:07 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:41 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:47 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:23 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:27 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 13:44 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 16:36 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 09:35 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |