Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Guentzel wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 47.4% vs Aho 50.0% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 54.6%
Defensive zone
Aho 64.3%
Neutral zone
Aho 57.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Guentzel
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Guentzel
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Guentzel
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
2
0
Guentzel
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (200)
49.9% (851)
-0.9%
Power Play
42.3% (111)
53.5% (144)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (24)
43.3% (60)
+2.5%
On power play, Aho has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Guentzel is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Guentzel shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Aho
Home
48.8% (166)
53.2% (554)
Away
44.4% (169)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Guentzel
Aho
P1
46.7%
49.1%
P2
48.5%
50.8%
P3
44.3%
49.7%
OT
42.9%
58.8%
Final 5 min
48.4%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 17:15 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |