Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.9% vs Aho 54.9% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 68.1%
Defensive zone
Aho 89.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 79.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 76.7%
23.3%
76.7%
Guentzel
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Guentzel
Aho
Last 5: Guentzel 4-1 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
3
0
Guentzel
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Guentzel
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (256)
54.5% (870)
-8.4%
Power Play
47.5% (122)
62.4% (266)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
37.1% (62)
-20.4%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Guentzel is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Guentzel shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Aho
Home
49.3% (201)
53.9% (603)
Away
42.6% (183)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Guentzel
Aho
P1
49.6%
54.1%
P2
45.6%
55.0%
P3
41.6%
57.4%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.7%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |