Scouting Report
Jamie Benn holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Benn wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Benn 59.9% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Benn 64.4%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 86.0%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 63.5%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Benn
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Benn
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Benn
1
0
Benn
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
3
Benn
Carpenter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Benn
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (479)
48.8% (404)
+13.8%
Power Play
58.4% (190)
100.0% (1)
-41.6%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (43)
43.6% (101)
+14.5%
On power play, Carpenter has a +41.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Benn is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (328).
Benn shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Benn
Carpenter
Home
60.5% (349)
48.9% (274)
Away
62.0% (363)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Benn
Carpenter
P1
60.8%
51.9%
P2
60.1%
49.4%
P3
62.4%
41.8%
OT
83.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
62.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Benn
48.0%▼
52.5%
61.2%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 18:47 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 04:05 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |