Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McCann wins 42.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCann 43.0% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
McCann 89.1%
Defensive zone
McCann 92.1%
Neutral zone
McCann 92.1%
Result
Jared McCann favored at 91.1%
91.1%
8.9%
McCann
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
11
(14 meetings)
3
11
McCann
Pavelski
Last 10: McCann 2-8 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
3
McCann
Pavelski
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
4
McCann
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
4
McCann
Pavelski
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCann
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (3,178)
53.6% (8,791)
-10.5%
Power Play
40.0% (260)
58.2% (2,122)
-18.2%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (173)
50.9% (1,138)
-8.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McCann is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,310).
McCann shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
McCann
Pavelski
Home
43.1% (1,758)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
42.5% (1,855)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
McCann
Pavelski
P1
44.4%
53.5%
P2
41.7%
55.2%
P3
42.7%
53.9%
OT
36.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
41.5%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCann
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 07:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 07:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:50 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2019 | 3 | 01:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2019 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 3 | 12:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 2 | 13:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 17:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 17:53 | Neutral | Jared McCann |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |