Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. McCann wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCann 48.4% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCann 59.5%
Defensive zone
McCann 52.9%
Neutral zone
McCann 54.9%
Result
Jared McCann favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
McCann
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McCann
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McCann
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
McCann
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCann
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (260)
51.5% (594)
-2.7%
Power Play
37.0% (27)
51.7% (87)
-14.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
28.6% (14)
+21.4%
On penalty kill, McCann has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McCann is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (111).
McCann shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
McCann
Pavelski
Home
51.0% (143)
53.1% (339)
Away
45.1% (164)
49.2% (356)
By Period
McCann
Pavelski
P1
53.6%
53.8%
P2
52.0%
47.8%
P3
37.6%
50.2%
OT
0.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
41.7%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCann
46.0%▬
45.0%
47.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 07:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 07:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Jared McCann |