Jason Dickinson vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dickinson wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.6% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 82.5%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 83.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.5%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Dickinson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Dickinson
MacKinnon
Last 8: Dickinson 4-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Dickinson
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
4
0
Dickinson
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (643)
50.0% (992)
+1.8%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
64.9% (148)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (150)
34.4% (32)
+4.3%
On penalty kill, Dickinson has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Dickinson is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (260).
Dickinson shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Dickinson
MacKinnon
Home
48.7% (419)
53.3% (591)
Away
50.4% (383)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Dickinson
MacKinnon
P1
42.6%
49.9%
P2
55.0%
53.2%
P3
50.0%
50.8%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 18:11 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:51 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |