Brady Tkachuk vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 56.0% vs Pageau 58.9% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 87.8%
Defensive zone
Pageau 88.4%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 55.8%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Tkachuk
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tkachuk
Pageau
Last 5: Tkachuk 2-3 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
2
Tkachuk
Pageau
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Tkachuk
Pageau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (139)
59.5% (676)
-2.7%
Power Play
60.6% (94)
67.6% (34)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
60.1% (213)
+39.9%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +39.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Tkachuk is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (63).
Tkachuk shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Pageau
Home
50.4% (121)
58.2% (364)
Away
67.3% (113)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Tkachuk
Pageau
P1
57.1%
54.4%
P2
60.0%
62.3%
P3
58.3%
62.0%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
63.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Pageau
58.0%▼
59.5%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 11:13 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 06:41 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |