Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Jonathan Toews

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Jonathan Toews holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Pageau 58.8% vs Toews 60.3% (-1.7%)
H2H factor Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone Toews 65.9%
Defensive zone Pageau 73.7%
Neutral zone Pageau 54.4%
Result Jonathan Toews favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Pageau Toews
Head-to-Head Record
4 - 5 (9 meetings)
4
5
Pageau Toews
Last 9: Pageau 4-5 Toews

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pageau Toews
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau Toews
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
3
Pageau Toews
4 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Pageau
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
62.5% (696)
-3.4%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
59.6% (141)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
46.9% (32)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +13.2% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Toews shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Pageau shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Pageau
Toews
Home
57.8% (377)
60.9% (435)
Away
61.0% (559)
62.0% (434)
By Period
Pageau
Toews
P1
54.1%
59.8%
P2
62.1%
65.7%
P3
61.8%
58.8%
OT
75.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
58.3%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%
57.5%
59.7%
Toews
58.0%
61.0%
61.4%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 13, 2026 2 18:18 Neutral Jonathan Toews
Jan 13, 2026 2 12:23 Neutral Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 13, 2026 2 05:48 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 13, 2026 2 04:38 Neutral Jonathan Toews
Jan 13, 2026 1 04:20 Neutral Jonathan Toews
Oct 13, 2025 3 16:08 Offensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Oct 13, 2025 2 09:39 Offensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Oct 13, 2025 2 07:47 Offensive Jonathan Toews
Oct 13, 2025 1 01:20 Offensive Jonathan Toews