Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Leo Carlsson
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs Carlsson 42.4% (+18.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 69.3%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 56.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 67.6%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Pageau
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Pageau
Carlsson
Last 6: Pageau 2-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Pageau
Carlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pageau
Carlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Pageau
Carlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
41.8% (648)
+17.8%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
37.3% (51)
+26.7%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
38.7% (31)
+17.7%
On power play, Pageau has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Pageau shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Pageau
Carlsson
Home
59.3% (506)
44.5% (362)
Away
60.0% (482)
38.3% (368)
By Period
Pageau
Carlsson
P1
56.8%
46.3%
P2
64.4%
35.1%
P3
56.9%
43.9%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
61.1%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:15 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:59 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |