Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Leo Carlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Carlsson 41.2% (+14.0%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 71.1%
Defensive zone
Pageau 93.8%
Neutral zone
Pageau 89.0%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 89.5%
89.5%
10.5%
Pageau
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Pageau
Carlsson
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
2
Pageau
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
7
2
Pageau
Carlsson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
2
Pageau
Carlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (9,486)
41.0% (1,844)
+14.7%
Power Play
57.0% (1,002)
42.9% (154)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,069)
35.0% (120)
+14.6%
On even strength, Pageau has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Pageau shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Home / Away
Pageau
Carlsson
Home
56.3% (6,214)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Pageau
Carlsson
P1
54.6%
43.3%
P2
56.3%
36.5%
P3
53.5%
43.2%
OT
54.4%
40.7%
Final 5 min
53.9%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:15 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:59 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |