Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Mason McTavish
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs McTavish 50.6% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 72.1%
Defensive zone
Pageau 88.8%
Neutral zone
Pageau 78.7%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 84.7%
84.7%
15.3%
Pageau
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Pageau
McTavish
Last 9: Pageau 6-3 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
McTavish
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Pageau
McTavish
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
McTavish
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
51.1% (769)
+8.5%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
50.6% (178)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
28.6% (14)
+27.8%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Pageau shoots right. McTavish is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Pageau
McTavish
Home
59.3% (506)
52.3% (461)
Away
60.0% (482)
49.2% (500)
By Period
Pageau
McTavish
P1
56.8%
51.5%
P2
64.4%
54.0%
P3
56.9%
47.1%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
61.1%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:37 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 12:27 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |