Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Noah Cates
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Cates 45.5% (+14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 77.8%
Defensive zone
Pageau 95.7%
Neutral zone
Pageau 93.1%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 92.4%
92.4%
7.6%
Pageau
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Pageau
Cates
Last 7: Pageau 6-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
0
Pageau
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
45.4% (712)
+13.7%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
42.2% (102)
+27.2%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
44.7% (47)
+15.4%
On power play, Pageau has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Pageau shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Pageau
Cates
Home
57.8% (377)
46.3% (423)
Away
61.0% (559)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Pageau
Cates
P1
54.1%
46.3%
P2
62.1%
47.1%
P3
61.8%
42.1%
OT
75.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
63.1%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 04:44 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:12 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |