Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Noah Cates

2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Pageau wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Pageau 58.7% vs Cates 45.1% (+15.0%)
H2H factor Pageau leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone Pageau 91.0%
Defensive zone Pageau 83.4%
Neutral zone Pageau 84.7%
Result Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
Pageau Cates
Head-to-Head Record
10 - 6 (16 meetings)
10
6
Pageau Cates
Last 9: Pageau 4-5 Cates

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pageau Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
6
3
Pageau Cates
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
1
Pageau Cates
3 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Pageau
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
46.7% (912)
+12.9%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
33.9% (56)
+30.1%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
35.0% (137)
+21.4%
On power play, Pageau has a +30.1% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Cates shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Pageau shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Pageau
Cates
Home
59.3% (506)
46.1% (521)
Away
60.0% (482)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Pageau
Cates
P1
56.8%
48.0%
P2
64.4%
42.3%
P3
56.9%
44.3%
OT
75.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
61.1%
42.5%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%
57.5%
59.6%
Cates
46.0%
50.0%
44.6%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 30, 2025 3 12:26 Defensive Noah Cates
Jan 30, 2025 2 12:44 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 24, 2025 3 13:42 Offensive Noah Cates
Jan 24, 2025 3 04:17 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 24, 2025 2 14:49 Defensive Noah Cates
Jan 24, 2025 2 10:10 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 16, 2025 3 18:48 Neutral Noah Cates
Jan 16, 2025 1 11:49 Defensive Noah Cates
Jan 16, 2025 1 07:22 Offensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau