Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Noah Cates
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Pageau wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs Cates 45.1% (+15.0%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 91.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 83.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 84.7%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
Pageau
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Pageau
Cates
Last 9: Pageau 4-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pageau
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
6
3
Pageau
Cates
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
1
Pageau
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
46.7% (912)
+12.9%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
33.9% (56)
+30.1%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
35.0% (137)
+21.4%
On power play, Pageau has a +30.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Pageau shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Pageau
Cates
Home
59.3% (506)
46.1% (521)
Away
60.0% (482)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Pageau
Cates
P1
56.8%
48.0%
P2
64.4%
42.3%
P3
56.9%
44.3%
OT
75.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
61.1%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 04:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:48 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 11:49 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |