Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Noah Cates

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 16 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Pageau 54.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+11.8%)
H2H factor Pageau leads 23-9 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone Pageau 93.0%
Defensive zone Pageau 97.8%
Neutral zone Pageau 96.6%
Result Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 96.4%
96.4%
3.6%
Pageau Cates
Head-to-Head Record
23 - 9 (32 meetings)
23
9
Pageau Cates
Last 10: Pageau 7-3 Cates

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
5
2
Pageau Cates
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
13
3
Pageau Cates
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
5
4
Pageau Cates
9 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Pageau
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (9,486)
44.1% (2,742)
+11.6%
Power Play
57.0% (1,002)
43.0% (242)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,069)
34.9% (373)
+14.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +14.7% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Cates shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Pageau shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Pageau
Cates
Home
56.3% (6,214)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Pageau
Cates
P1
54.6%
44.5%
P2
56.3%
43.5%
P3
53.5%
41.2%
OT
54.4%
29.4%
Final 5 min
53.9%
41.1%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%
57.5%
54.8%
Cates
46.0%
50.0%
43.0%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 26, 2026 3 05:07 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 26, 2026 3 04:44 Neutral Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 26, 2026 3 01:14 Neutral Noah Cates
Jan 26, 2026 2 02:30 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 26, 2026 1 03:12 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Oct 25, 2025 3 06:19 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Oct 25, 2025 1 15:36 Offensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 30, 2025 3 12:26 Defensive Noah Cates
Jan 30, 2025 2 12:44 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 24, 2025 3 13:42 Offensive Noah Cates
Jan 24, 2025 3 04:17 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 24, 2025 2 14:49 Defensive Noah Cates
Jan 24, 2025 2 10:10 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jan 16, 2025 3 18:48 Neutral Noah Cates
Jan 16, 2025 1 11:49 Defensive Noah Cates
Jan 16, 2025 1 07:22 Offensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Nov 22, 2023 3 05:39 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Nov 22, 2023 2 14:25 Neutral Noah Cates
Nov 22, 2023 2 14:18 Neutral Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Feb 6, 2023 3 06:15 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau