Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Steven Stamkos
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 57.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Stamkos 54.6% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 68.4%
Defensive zone
Pageau 84.3%
Neutral zone
Pageau 64.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Pageau
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Pageau
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
56.1% (342)
+3.0%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
53.3% (92)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
62.5% (8)
-2.4%
On power play, Pageau has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Pageau is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Pageau shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Pageau
Stamkos
Home
57.8% (377)
53.4% (208)
Away
61.0% (559)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Pageau
Stamkos
P1
54.1%
55.6%
P2
62.1%
52.8%
P3
61.8%
59.1%
OT
75.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
63.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 19:29 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |