Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 59.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.2% vs Carter 51.2% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 58.9%
Defensive zone
Carter 56.1%
Neutral zone
Carter 59.8%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Ryan
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Ryan
Carter
Last 10: Ryan 4-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Carter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
3
Ryan
Carter
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
3
Ryan
Carter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (594)
49.9% (935)
+9.2%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
61.8% (157)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (107)
46.7% (92)
+11.2%
On power play, Carter has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Ryan is 59.9% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Ryan shoots right. Carter is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (330).
Home / Away
Ryan
Carter
Home
57.0% (398)
52.4% (638)
Away
59.5% (358)
50.0% (546)
By Period
Ryan
Carter
P1
56.2%
49.6%
P2
56.9%
50.9%
P3
61.1%
53.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2019 | 3 | 11:47 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 3 | 00:13 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 2 | 04:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 30, 2018 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 30, 2018 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 30, 2018 | 2 | 15:53 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 30, 2018 | 1 | 13:45 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 3 | 04:56 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 2 | 08:34 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |