Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (76% H2H, 25 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 44-30 in 74 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 56.6%
Defensive zone
Carter 57.9%
Neutral zone
Carter 57.4%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Carter
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
44
(74 meetings)
30
44
Carter
Pavelski
Last 10: Carter 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
16
11
Carter
Pavelski
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
14
Carter
Pavelski
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
19
Carter
Pavelski
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
53.6% (8,791)
-0.3%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
58.2% (2,122)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
50.9% (1,138)
-4.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Carter
Pavelski
Home
54.7% (5,752)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Carter
Pavelski
P1
53.6%
53.5%
P2
52.8%
55.2%
P3
53.1%
53.9%
OT
56.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 17:51 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 06:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 19:50 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 17:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 14:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 08:34 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 1 | 17:50 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 7, 2019 | 2 | 14:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2019 | 1 | 06:44 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 16:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 5, 2018 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 3 | 02:43 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 3 | 02:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |