Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Carter wins 60.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Pavelski 53.0% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 76.6%
Defensive zone
Carter 76.4%
Neutral zone
Carter 51.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Carter
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carter
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Carter
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
52.3% (560)
+7.4%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
57.5% (113)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
62.5% (16)
-9.3%
On power play, Carter has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Carter is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Carter shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Carter
Pavelski
Home
58.7% (455)
54.2% (360)
Away
60.0% (483)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Carter
Pavelski
P1
61.3%
54.5%
P2
57.1%
56.7%
P3
59.8%
50.8%
OT
57.1%
30.8%
Final 5 min
60.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |