Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Pavelski 52.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 75.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 62.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 54.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Carter
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Carter
Pavelski
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
0
Carter
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Carter
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Carter
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
52.5% (570)
+5.4%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
54.5% (145)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
44.4% (36)
+1.0%
On power play, Carter has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Carter is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Carter shoots right. Pavelski is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
Carter
Pavelski
Home
58.2% (543)
55.0% (391)
Away
55.9% (594)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Carter
Pavelski
P1
57.5%
50.8%
P2
57.1%
55.0%
P3
55.8%
52.0%
OT
68.2%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 17:51 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 06:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 19:50 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 17:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 14:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 08:34 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |