Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 50.7% vs Pavelski 57.8% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 76.5%
Defensive zone
Carter 68.4%
Neutral zone
Carter 69.0%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Carter
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Carter
Pavelski
Last 7: Carter 2-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
1
Carter
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Carter
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Carter
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (565)
57.8% (569)
-6.8%
Power Play
50.0% (188)
60.2% (161)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
59.5% (121)
-9.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Carter is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Carter shoots right. Pavelski is 66.1% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Home / Away
Carter
Pavelski
Home
52.3% (421)
61.0% (403)
Away
49.0% (353)
56.6% (461)
By Period
Carter
Pavelski
P1
55.4%
62.9%
P2
49.1%
56.6%
P3
47.6%
57.1%
OT
58.8%
57.9%
Final 5 min
52.2%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
50.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2012 | 1 | 00:07 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 2 | 09:37 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 00:18 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 2 | 00:51 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 09:41 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 03:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |