Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.9% vs 52.5%). Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 51.8% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 54.7%
Defensive zone
Carter 54.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 52.2%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Carter
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Carter
Pavelski
Last 10: Carter 3-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carter
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
5
Carter
Pavelski
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carter
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,137)
51.3% (643)
+2.1%
Power Play
48.7% (154)
58.1% (172)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (124)
46.3% (41)
-3.6%
On power play, Pavelski has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Carter is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Carter shoots right. Pavelski is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Carter
Pavelski
Home
54.8% (753)
53.8% (431)
Away
48.6% (662)
51.1% (425)
By Period
Carter
Pavelski
P1
52.8%
48.4%
P2
53.0%
52.0%
P3
49.9%
55.6%
OT
53.3%
80.0%
Final 5 min
49.9%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2017 | 3 | 02:43 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 3 | 02:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 2 | 06:51 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 1 | 18:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 1 | 11:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2 | 03:46 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |