Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.0% vs 57.3%). Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs McLeod 56.6% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 82.8%
Defensive zone
McLeod 72.2%
Neutral zone
Carter 59.6%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Carter
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Carter
McLeod
Last 5: Carter 4-1 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
0
Carter
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
1
Carter
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
58.3% (859)
-0.4%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
50.0% (28)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
53.0% (168)
-7.6%
On power play, Carter has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. Carter is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Carter shoots right. McLeod is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (277).
Home / Away
Carter
McLeod
Home
58.2% (543)
55.3% (526)
Away
55.9% (594)
59.2% (529)
By Period
Carter
McLeod
P1
57.5%
60.7%
P2
57.1%
55.9%
P3
55.8%
55.2%
OT
68.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 03:44 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 15:19 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 07:52 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 05:28 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |