Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Backlund 50.8% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 82.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 51.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 60.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 67.8%
32.2%
67.8%
Carter
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Carter
Backlund
Last 7: Carter 2-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Carter
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Carter
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
51.9% (1,083)
+7.8%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
51.7% (120)
+16.4%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
44.3% (183)
+8.9%
On power play, Carter has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. Backlund is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Carter
Backlund
Home
58.7% (455)
51.9% (673)
Away
60.0% (483)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Carter
Backlund
P1
61.3%
51.4%
P2
57.1%
50.5%
P3
59.8%
51.4%
OT
57.1%
35.0%
Final 5 min
60.2%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 04:55 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 13:47 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 1 | 13:03 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |