Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Frost 48.7% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 73.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 64.5%
Neutral zone
Frost 74.0%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
Carter
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Carter
Frost
Last 10: Carter 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
3
Carter
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carter
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
Carter
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
47.4% (426)
+10.5%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
63.9% (36)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
20.0% (5)
+25.4%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. Frost is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Carter
Frost
Home
58.2% (543)
51.1% (221)
Away
55.9% (594)
45.9% (246)
By Period
Carter
Frost
P1
57.5%
47.5%
P2
57.1%
52.3%
P3
55.8%
44.7%
OT
68.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 09:14 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 07:42 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 05:38 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 05:47 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 07:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 12:36 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 1 | 16:34 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |