Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 17-10 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 87.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 74.1%
Neutral zone
Carter 80.2%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 82.4%
82.4%
17.6%
Carter
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
10
(27 meetings)
17
10
Carter
Bjugstad
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
10
3
Carter
Bjugstad
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
3
2
Carter
Bjugstad
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
4
5
Carter
Bjugstad
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
48.6% (6,634)
+4.7%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
55.2% (829)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
44.3% (614)
+2.0%
On even strength, Carter has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. Bjugstad is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,330).
Home / Away
Carter
Bjugstad
Home
54.7% (5,752)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Carter
Bjugstad
P1
53.6%
49.0%
P2
52.8%
49.1%
P3
53.1%
48.4%
OT
56.5%
61.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2023 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 05:33 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 02:09 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:18 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 9, 2017 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |