Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 60.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 50.8%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 53.9%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 50.8%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Carter
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Carter
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
1
Carter
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Carter
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
49.4% (867)
+10.3%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
56.0% (25)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
40.7% (216)
+12.5%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Carter is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Carter shoots right. Bjugstad is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (312).
Home / Away
Carter
Bjugstad
Home
58.7% (455)
46.5% (480)
Away
60.0% (483)
48.9% (628)
By Period
Carter
Bjugstad
P1
61.3%
48.7%
P2
57.1%
45.6%
P3
59.8%
49.1%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.2%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 05:33 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 02:09 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:18 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |