Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Paul 50.4% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 58.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 60.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 59.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Carter
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Carter
Paul
Last 6: Carter 2-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
1
Carter
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Carter
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
53.0% (644)
+4.9%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
37.5% (24)
+24.2%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
42.9% (177)
+2.5%
On power play, Carter has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Carter
Paul
Home
58.2% (543)
52.5% (516)
Away
55.9% (594)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Carter
Paul
P1
57.5%
47.6%
P2
57.1%
48.4%
P3
55.8%
54.5%
OT
68.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 15:49 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 04:45 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 10:40 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 17:10 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |