Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Paul 53.4% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 72.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 62.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 56.3%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Carter
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Carter
Paul
Last 10: Carter 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Carter
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
4
3
Carter
Paul
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Carter
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
53.8% (753)
+5.9%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
58.9% (90)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
47.4% (78)
+5.8%
On power play, Carter has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. Paul is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Carter
Paul
Home
58.7% (455)
54.2% (450)
Away
60.0% (483)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Carter
Paul
P1
61.3%
58.2%
P2
57.1%
50.6%
P3
59.8%
52.9%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 01:21 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:43 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 09:08 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 06:56 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 01:15 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 02:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 01:09 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:49 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 04:03 | Offensive | Nick Paul |