Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Carter wins 63.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 60.1% vs Paul 53.9% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 62.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 85.1%
Neutral zone
Carter 68.9%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Carter
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Carter
Paul
Last 10: Carter 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
4
Carter
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
7
1
Carter
Paul
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
65.6% (262)
53.1% (710)
+12.5%
Power Play
68.3% (63)
57.3% (199)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (99)
58.0% (69)
-7.5%
On even strength, Carter has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Carter is 63.9% vs left-shot opponents (335).
Carter shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Carter
Paul
Home
64.3% (207)
56.0% (466)
Away
60.8% (217)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Carter
Paul
P1
65.3%
57.2%
P2
60.1%
54.9%
P3
63.8%
51.5%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
65.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
62.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:52 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 10:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |