Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 21-18 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 65.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 53.9%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Carter
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
21
(39 meetings)
18
21
Carter
Stamkos
Last 10: Carter 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
5
8
Carter
Stamkos
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
6
8
Carter
Stamkos
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
7
5
Carter
Stamkos
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
50.4% (9,799)
+2.9%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
55.1% (1,725)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
49.7% (825)
-3.4%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Carter
Stamkos
Home
54.7% (5,752)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Carter
Stamkos
P1
53.6%
49.1%
P2
52.8%
52.7%
P3
53.1%
50.9%
OT
56.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 09:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:17 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:23 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 01:20 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 04:13 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 2 | 19:44 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 2 | 00:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 2 | 00:12 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 2 | 17:40 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 1 | 05:06 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 1 | 04:50 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 1 | 02:35 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |