Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 61.5%
Defensive zone
Carter 65.7%
Neutral zone
Carter 51.9%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Carter
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Carter
Stamkos
Last 8: Carter 4-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carter
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Carter
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
49.3% (789)
+8.6%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
56.9% (181)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
54.1% (98)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Carter is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Carter shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Carter
Stamkos
Home
58.2% (543)
52.0% (512)
Away
55.9% (594)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Carter
Stamkos
P1
57.5%
42.1%
P2
57.1%
56.4%
P3
55.8%
53.7%
OT
68.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 04:13 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 2 | 19:44 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 2 | 00:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 2 | 00:12 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 12, 2021 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |