Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 60.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Stamkos 53.4% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 60.0%
Defensive zone
Carter 90.2%
Neutral zone
Carter 77.7%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Carter
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Carter
Stamkos
Last 6: Carter 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Carter
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
0
Carter
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
55.3% (628)
+4.4%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
55.1% (216)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
40.2% (87)
+13.0%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Carter is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Carter shoots right. Stamkos is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Carter
Stamkos
Home
58.7% (455)
55.5% (499)
Away
60.0% (483)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Carter
Stamkos
P1
61.3%
50.7%
P2
57.1%
53.8%
P3
59.8%
55.9%
OT
57.1%
87.5%
Final 5 min
60.2%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 09:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:17 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:23 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 01:20 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |