Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 51.1% vs Hertl 54.3% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 53.6%
Defensive zone
Carter 57.8%
Neutral zone
Carter 57.1%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Carter
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Carter
Hertl
Last 8: Carter 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
3
2
Carter
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Carter
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Carter
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (552)
54.7% (570)
-2.5%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
55.2% (143)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (100)
54.5% (77)
-13.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carter is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Carter shoots right. Hertl is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Carter
Hertl
Home
51.2% (324)
56.2% (379)
Away
51.2% (422)
53.5% (411)
By Period
Carter
Hertl
P1
49.8%
53.4%
P2
52.8%
52.7%
P3
51.2%
57.6%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2019 | OT | 00:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 10:49 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 05:03 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 16:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 1 | 17:31 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |