Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Hertl 54.5% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 89.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 65.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 71.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Carter
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Carter
Hertl
Last 8: Carter 2-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Carter
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Carter
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carter
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
54.1% (1,117)
+5.6%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
59.8% (296)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
34.4% (32)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Carter
Hertl
Home
58.7% (455)
54.3% (709)
Away
60.0% (483)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Carter
Hertl
P1
61.3%
51.6%
P2
57.1%
53.6%
P3
59.8%
58.6%
OT
57.1%
45.5%
Final 5 min
60.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 18:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 12:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 14:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 08:52 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |