Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 29 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Hertl 54.2% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 43-30 in 73 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 53.8%
Neutral zone
Carter 50.6%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Carter
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
43
(73 meetings)
30
43
Carter
Hertl
Last 10: Carter 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
11
13
Carter
Hertl
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
9
20
Carter
Hertl
29 total
Neutral Zone
Even
10
10
Carter
Hertl
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
53.8% (8,268)
-0.5%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
59.3% (1,975)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
46.3% (806)
+0.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Carter
Hertl
Home
54.7% (5,752)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Carter
Hertl
P1
53.6%
53.6%
P2
52.8%
54.1%
P3
53.1%
55.3%
OT
56.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 18:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 12:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 14:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 08:52 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 03:47 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 17:59 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 16:46 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 16:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 13:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |