Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 49.0% vs Hertl 54.7% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 70.5%
Defensive zone
Carter 70.1%
Neutral zone
Carter 69.7%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Carter
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Carter
Hertl
Last 10: Carter 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
5
Carter
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Carter
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (242)
55.7% (648)
-6.1%
Power Play
59.1% (22)
60.4% (149)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (50)
42.2% (83)
-2.2%
On even strength, Hertl has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carter is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (199).
Carter shoots right. Hertl is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Carter
Hertl
Home
48.6% (173)
58.3% (391)
Away
48.9% (141)
52.8% (489)
By Period
Carter
Hertl
P1
52.1%
58.9%
P2
47.8%
51.5%
P3
46.6%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
76.9%
Final 5 min
48.1%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
48.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 17:59 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 16:46 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 16:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 13:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 04:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 08:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 15:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 00:46 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 3 | 01:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |