Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Karlsson 51.5% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 50.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 56.2%
Neutral zone
Carter 52.6%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Carter
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Carter
Karlsson
Last 6: Carter 3-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Carter
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carter
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
51.4% (735)
+6.5%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
63.5% (115)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
42.9% (133)
+2.5%
On even strength, Carter has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. Karlsson is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Home / Away
Carter
Karlsson
Home
58.2% (543)
52.3% (524)
Away
55.9% (594)
51.0% (459)
By Period
Carter
Karlsson
P1
57.5%
50.7%
P2
57.1%
51.4%
P3
55.8%
53.2%
OT
68.2%
41.2%
Final 5 min
57.0%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2022 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 1 | 14:33 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 1 | 14:21 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:36 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |