Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Girgensons 49.9% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 78.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 64.6%
Neutral zone
Carter 72.2%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Carter
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Carter
Girgensons
Last 5: Carter 3-2 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
3
0
Carter
Girgensons
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
2
Carter
Girgensons
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
49.0% (210)
+8.9%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
63.6% (22)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
47.3% (55)
-1.9%
On even strength, Carter has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. Girgensons is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (114).
Home / Away
Carter
Girgensons
Home
58.2% (543)
52.1% (142)
Away
55.9% (594)
47.6% (145)
By Period
Carter
Girgensons
P1
57.5%
54.3%
P2
57.1%
49.1%
P3
55.8%
44.8%
OT
68.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 3 | 15:10 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 2 | 12:14 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 09:13 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |