Dawson Mercer vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Kotkaniemi 51.5% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 74.2%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 68.9%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 64.1%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 69.1%
30.9%
69.1%
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
0
1
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
52.8% (670)
-11.8%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
37.5% (32)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
14.3% (7)
+22.1%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mercer shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
Home
45.2% (126)
52.5% (366)
Away
35.1% (111)
51.0% (343)
By Period
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
P1
34.5%
53.8%
P2
43.4%
49.2%
P3
45.8%
52.6%
Final 5 min
47.9%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
40.5%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
48.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 03:59 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:47 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |