Jesperi Kotkaniemi vs Ryan O'Reilly
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 51.5% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 52.6%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 59.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (670)
56.2% (983)
-3.4%
Power Play
37.5% (32)
55.5% (254)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
52.0% (102)
-37.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +37.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Home
52.5% (366)
56.2% (697)
Away
51.0% (343)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
54.5%
P2
49.2%
55.5%
P3
52.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |