Jesperi Kotkaniemi vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kotkaniemi on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 49.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 72.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.2%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 59.5%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kotkaniemi 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
3
1
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (3,852)
56.2% (15,260)
-7.2%
Power Play
51.3% (351)
58.8% (3,445)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (35)
51.4% (2,811)
-5.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,784).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Home
49.7% (2,197)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
48.7% (2,041)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
P1
49.9%
55.6%
P2
50.4%
57.0%
P3
47.2%
55.1%
OT
50.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
49.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
49.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 14:41 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 3 | 06:28 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 16:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 03:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 04:22 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 1 | 04:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |