Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.8% vs 53.2%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 52.5% vs Pavelski 52.9% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 53.3%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 73.7%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 66.2%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Cirelli
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cirelli
Pavelski
Last 7: Cirelli 2-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Cirelli
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Cirelli
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (748)
54.0% (730)
-1.2%
Power Play
59.4% (32)
57.1% (156)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (171)
41.7% (103)
+9.8%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cirelli is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Cirelli shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Pavelski
Home
54.5% (466)
55.2% (458)
Away
51.1% (485)
51.4% (531)
By Period
Cirelli
Pavelski
P1
48.6%
54.0%
P2
54.8%
54.5%
P3
55.8%
50.5%
OT
41.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.4%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
52.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2019 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 3 | 03:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 10:00 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 04:16 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |