Auston Matthews vs Joe Pavelski
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.2%). Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 55.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 51.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 50.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Matthews
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
13
(21 meetings)
8
13
Matthews
Pavelski
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
7
4
Matthews
Pavelski
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
7
Matthews
Pavelski
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Matthews
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
53.6% (8,791)
+0.4%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
58.2% (2,122)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
50.9% (1,138)
-1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pavelski
Home
56.3% (5,065)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Matthews
Pavelski
P1
55.5%
53.5%
P2
53.3%
55.2%
P3
52.8%
53.9%
OT
56.6%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 09:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 14:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 3 | 07:04 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 04:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 3 | 10:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 14:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 07:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 18:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 08:23 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |