Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Horvat wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 51.3% vs Pavelski 55.5% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 78.2%
Defensive zone
Horvat 80.0%
Neutral zone
Horvat 79.7%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Horvat
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Horvat
Pavelski
Last 9: Horvat 2-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
5
Horvat
Pavelski
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
0
Horvat
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Horvat
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (743)
55.0% (785)
-2.9%
Power Play
51.9% (27)
62.7% (201)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (78)
52.2% (161)
-7.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Horvat is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (314).
Horvat shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Home / Away
Horvat
Pavelski
Home
53.1% (420)
58.1% (580)
Away
49.8% (428)
53.8% (567)
By Period
Horvat
Pavelski
P1
52.4%
53.4%
P2
49.3%
58.6%
P3
52.8%
56.4%
OT
42.9%
36.8%
Final 5 min
53.0%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
51.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2015 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 7, 2015 | 2 | 13:58 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 12:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 30, 2014 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 30, 2014 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 30, 2014 | 1 | 18:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 1 | 05:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |