Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Saad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Saad wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Saad 48.0% vs Pavelski 54.4% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Saad 62.7%
Defensive zone
Saad 58.1%
Neutral zone
Saad 60.8%
Result
Brandon Saad favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Saad
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Saad
Pavelski
Last 5: Saad 2-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Saad
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Saad
2
1
Saad
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Saad
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Saad
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (91)
53.2% (690)
-8.1%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
61.5% (174)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
55.3% (47)
-7.7%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Saad is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (45).
Saad shoots left. Pavelski is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (707).
Home / Away
Saad
Pavelski
Home
47.1% (51)
56.1% (421)
Away
45.7% (70)
53.9% (490)
By Period
Saad
Pavelski
P1
43.9%
57.1%
P2
51.2%
55.8%
P3
43.2%
52.5%
Final 5 min
51.7%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Saad
28.0%▼
38.0%
46.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 08:59 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | Brandon Saad |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 1 | 15:21 | Defensive | Brandon Saad |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 1 | 03:22 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 23, 2018 | 3 | 12:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |