Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tierney wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 50.8% vs Pavelski 52.9% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tierney 55.7%
Defensive zone
Tierney 69.5%
Neutral zone
Tierney 62.1%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Tierney
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
7
(7 meetings)
0
7
Tierney
Pavelski
Last 7: Tierney 0-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Tierney
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Tierney
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Tierney
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (844)
54.0% (730)
-1.9%
Power Play
50.7% (75)
57.1% (156)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (124)
41.7% (103)
+1.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Tierney is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Tierney shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Tierney
Pavelski
Home
51.2% (521)
55.2% (458)
Away
50.6% (522)
51.4% (531)
By Period
Tierney
Pavelski
P1
49.3%
54.0%
P2
50.4%
54.5%
P3
53.4%
50.5%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
50.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 17:10 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 02:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |