Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 40.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.5% vs Pavelski 54.5% (-13.8%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 83.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 65.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 83.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 76.4%
23.6%
76.4%
McDavid
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
McDavid
Pavelski
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
McDavid
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (578)
53.6% (657)
-12.9%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
60.2% (221)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
51.7% (60)
-1.7%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McDavid is 40.2% vs right-shot opponents (241).
McDavid shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pavelski
Home
42.7% (323)
57.4% (470)
Away
39.5% (281)
52.6% (468)
By Period
McDavid
Pavelski
P1
42.3%
53.4%
P2
37.3%
55.6%
P3
43.4%
55.5%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
36.8%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2016 | 2 | 18:04 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 2 | 12:52 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 2 | 03:29 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 1 | 17:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 1 | 11:41 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 1 | 08:38 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |