Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 43.9% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 79.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 77.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 78.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
McDavid
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
McDavid
Pavelski
Last 6: McDavid 1-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
McDavid
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
McDavid
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (750)
51.3% (643)
-8.0%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
58.1% (172)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (31)
46.3% (41)
-4.4%
On power play, Pavelski has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McDavid is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (331).
McDavid shoots left. Pavelski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pavelski
Home
48.7% (413)
53.8% (431)
Away
37.4% (393)
51.1% (425)
By Period
McDavid
Pavelski
P1
38.8%
48.4%
P2
46.8%
52.0%
P3
44.2%
55.6%
OT
45.5%
80.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
43.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2017 | 2 | 04:09 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 26, 2017 | 3 | 01:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 26, 2017 | 1 | 13:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 03:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |