Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.0% vs Pavelski 52.9% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 81.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 82.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 81.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
McDavid
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
McDavid
Pavelski
Last 10: McDavid 1-9 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
McDavid
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
McDavid
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
5
McDavid
Pavelski
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (862)
54.0% (730)
-7.1%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
57.1% (156)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
41.7% (103)
+2.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McDavid is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (330).
McDavid shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pavelski
Home
47.9% (478)
55.2% (458)
Away
45.2% (440)
51.4% (531)
By Period
McDavid
Pavelski
P1
45.9%
54.0%
P2
47.7%
54.5%
P3
46.6%
50.5%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 2 | 17:56 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 2 | 07:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 17:18 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 04:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 12:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 3 | 01:04 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 1 | 14:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |